I have created a multiple linear regression model with R using lm and glm. I am using lm on a training set and predict on a testing set to validate the model. In one test my results are within 80% of what they should be for 80% of the cases. It correlates with 40% for one response variable and with 63% for another response variable (but the response variable with 63% correlation isn't near the actual values of the prediction). I have 53 predicates. What is the probability of that occurring randomly?
I've tried to build an multi-class svm off of the features using the predicates but so far the svm has been unable to properly predict the results.
Best Answer
I found the binomial distribution assuming the probability of each 10% point is equal falling within 10%+/- of the actual answer is 3/10. From there you take the total number, the amount that fit the criteria and the probability and plug them into this page and you find the number is very small. http://homepages.wmich.edu/~bwagner/StatReview/Binomial/binomia%20in%20excel.htm I'll post this as an answer in a couple of hours.
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