This may be hard to find, but I'd like to read a **well-explained ARIMA example** that

uses minimal math

extends the discussion beyond building a model into using that model to forecast specific cases

uses graphics as well as numerical results to characterize the fit between forecasted and actual values.

**Contents**hide

#### Best Answer

My suggested reading for an intro to ARIMA modelling would be

Applied Time Series Analysis for the Social Sciences 1980 by R McCleary ; R A Hay ; E E Meidinger ; D McDowall

This is aimed at social scientists so the mathematical demands are not too rigorous. Also for shorter treatments I would suggest two Sage Green Books (although they are entirely redundant with the McCleary book),

- Interrupted Time Series Analysis by David McDowall, Richard McCleary, Errol Meidinger, and Richard A. Hay, Jr
- Time Series Analysis by Charles W. Ostrom

The Ostrom text is only ARMA modelling and does not discuss forecasting. I don't think they would meet your requirement for graphing forecast error either. I'm sure you could dig up more useful resources by examining questions tagged with time-series on this forum as well.