Solved – Seeking certain type of ARIMA explanation

This may be hard to find, but I'd like to read a well-explained ARIMA example that

  • uses minimal math

  • extends the discussion beyond building a model into using that model to forecast specific cases

  • uses graphics as well as numerical results to characterize the fit between forecasted and actual values.

My suggested reading for an intro to ARIMA modelling would be

Applied Time Series Analysis for the Social Sciences 1980 by R McCleary ; R A Hay ; E E Meidinger ; D McDowall

This is aimed at social scientists so the mathematical demands are not too rigorous. Also for shorter treatments I would suggest two Sage Green Books (although they are entirely redundant with the McCleary book),

The Ostrom text is only ARMA modelling and does not discuss forecasting. I don't think they would meet your requirement for graphing forecast error either. I'm sure you could dig up more useful resources by examining questions tagged with time-series on this forum as well.

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