Solved – How to forecast based on time series data and additional predictors

I am currently working on an analysis project where I wish to predict sickness levels of employees in different offices for a company for the remainder of 2017.

In the past, I have made predictions based purely on predictors and also just purely on the time series. For this project, I feel I need to combine the 2 types of forecasting for the must accurate results.

I have the following data available:

  • The past 4 years sickness data measured in hours per day per office.
  • The number of people working in the company in each office for each day of the year for the last 4 years.

I feel that combining these 2 measurements will lead to reasonably accurate forecasts. I can see that that the time series data has a seasonal element to it and a slowly declining trend. My problem is combining the employee numbers per office with historical sickness data per office.

Any help on this is much appreciated. I am attempting to do this in R but any theoretical advice is appreciated too or a book/website reccomendations for learning this kind of methodology. Thanks!

This is called Dynamic regression and is described very well, with examples, in Hyndman & Athana­sopou­los (2016) chapter 9.1.

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