I am Airliner.I want to protect my business from price volatility of jet fuel cost.Jet fuel is not traded in futures market but Crude oil is traded in futures market. I have daily spot prices of jet fuel and contract prices of crude oil.
e.g. on 19th April,spot price(Jet fuel) is 100.April contract price (crude oil) = 103,May contract price = 110,June Contract price =118 and July contract price = 109 and August price = 125. Spot and contract prices change on daily basis as per demand-supply dynamics.
Should I find correlation between spot price on particular date and contract prices on that date for all contracts? How should I go about it?
Please help me with approach.
Well, because I'm new to this site, I am not allowed to comment. I will answer and have a moderator move it to the comments section (again).
Honestly, your question is way too broad. What do you mean by "daily data"? Tick data? Daily closing prices? Both? The literature on futures hedging is endless, so you need to be more specific in what context you need this answered, then I can be of more help.
Regressing futures prices against the underlying spot price is sort of circular. There are well known futures pricing models (based off spot, risk-free rates, etc… See Options, Futures and Other Derivatives by John C. Hull, for starters) that should theoretically GIVE you the futures price based off of spot.
Another approach is using spot prices and the yield curve to bootstrap an implied futures/spot relationship extending to the deferred months. This lets you see what the market is implying about futures prices of the deferred months, and where things are actually trading (due to liquidity issues, etc… This is common in products like soybeans, eg).
EDIT: Just to clarify, the reason you wouldn't want to regress the futures price against the underlying is that we already know there is a very direct correlation between the two assets. The spot asset is used in deriving the fair-value futures price. To use a concrete example, there are well known formulas to price out US Treasury futures based off of cash treasuries. What you're suggesting is to regress Treasury futures against treasury cash, and that is just silly. What you should be doing is regressing the Treasury BASIS (essentially buying the cash vs selling future and vice versa) against some other, external stimuli (like the Fed Funds rate, or the temperature outside – to use a silly example).
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