Why is it giving me a straight line whereas we can see that there is a pattern? Please tell me what I am doing wrong. I have build this model in python using statsmodel library.

I want the forecast for the year 2017. But it is coming a straight line. I want to know why there are no fluctuations? The data given was weekly data and I applied ARIMA model with order (1,1,1). With d=1, the series was becoming stationary.

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#### Best Answer

You have considered orders(1,1,1) which explains stationary data. You also need to consider seasonal factor to get desired output.

order = c(1,1,1), seasonal = c(1,1,1)

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